Economic and Financial Highlights of the Week (27/10/2025-02/11/2025)

From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the global economy maintained a modest recovery momentum but continued to face pressure from high capital costs and rising trade risks. International financial markets fluctuated around expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve would soon lower interest rates, while investor sentiment remained cautious. In Vietnam, production and exports continued to grow positively, reinforcing expectations of achieving an annual growth target of around 8% in 2025.

Global Economy: On October 29, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced a 0.25% interest rate cut, marking the second consecutive reduction in 2025 and lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%–4.00%. The decision is seen as an effort to support the U.S. economy amid signs of labor market weakness and the negative impact of retaliatory tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump. Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that further rate cuts are unlikely for the remainder of 2025, contrary to investors’ expectations. Inflation remains above target, with both headline and core inflation at 3% in September, preventing the Fed from committing to a clear easing path in the near term. The Fed also announced that it will end its balance sheet reduction program starting December 1 to support liquidity in the tightening money market.

Vietnam Economy: Foreign direct investment (FDI) continues to be a bright spot in Vietnam’s economy in 2025. As of September, disbursed FDI reached USD 18.8 billion – the highest level in five years – while newly registered capital stood at USD 28.5 billion, up 15.2% year-on-year. The manufacturing and processing sector remained dominant, attracting USD 7.27 billion (58.7% of total newly registered capital), followed by real estate with USD 2.57 billion (20.7%). In addition to traditional investors such as South Korea, Singapore, and Japan, the United States and mainland China have emerged as new, large-scale investors focusing on high-tech manufacturing, renewable energy, and industrial infrastructure. Singapore remained the largest investor with USD 3.43 billion (27.7%), followed by China with USD 2.88 billion (23.3%) and Hong Kong (SAR, China) with USD 1.06 billion (8.5%).

Stock Market: During the week, the market remained under strong correction pressure, with key short-term support levels breached, causing wide fluctuations. The VN-Index closed at 1,639.65 points, down 2.59% from the previous week. Banking, financial services, and Vingroup-related stocks were the main drags, facing strong selling from both domestic and foreign investors. The share of stocks trading above their 60-day moving average dropped sharply to 29%, showing signs of stabilization. Thus, the market’s downward momentum is expected to ease as the index approaches the 1,600-point support level. Average daily trading value was VND 27.56 trillion, 25% lower than the active period in early July. Positively, the lower liquidity indicates limited panic selling, with capital still rotating across sectors in an orderly correction phase.

Bond Market: According to VBMA’s corporate bond market report for Oct 20–24, 2025, issuance activity remained strong with 31 issuances totaling VND 42.04 trillion. Year-to-date corporate bond issuance reached VND 465.79 trillion, including 27 public offerings worth VND 49.58 trillion (11.4%) and 369 private placements worth VND 416.21 trillion (89.4%). Early redemption activity declined sharply in October, with only VND 8.15 trillion in bonds repurchased as of Oct 24. Cumulatively, VND 245.26 trillion in bonds have been redeemed early – up 54.8% year-on-year – with banks accounting for 66.8% of the total. Secondary-market trading of corporate bonds remained stable, with private bond transactions averaging VND 4.2 trillion per session (10% higher week-on-week), and listed bond trading on HNX averaging VND 490 billion per session (27% higher week-on-week and 31% above the 2024 average).

Real Estate Market: According to Hanoi’s proposed 2026 land price framework, prime locations in the old Hoàn Kiếm District would see residential land prices reach over VND 700 million per m² for first-position lots on streets such as Bà Triệu, Đinh Tiên Hoàng, Hai Bà Trưng, Hàng Đào, and Trần Hưng Đạo. This represents a 2% increase from current prices. Notably, suburban communes such as those in Zone 9 (covering Liên Minh, Ô Diên, Đan Phượng, Hoài Đức, Dương Hòa, Đông Sơn, An Khánh) may see the highest rises at 26%. Zones 7 and 10 are also expected to experience increases of around 25%.

Gold Market: Domestic gold prices followed the sharp global decline. SJC gold bars were quoted at VND 146.4–148.4 million per tael (buy-sell), down significantly from the previous week, with a VND 2 million spread that has remained stable in recent weeks. Globally, gold prices dropped sharply from record highs to USD 4,004 per ounce as investors took profits after a sustained rally. Despite the correction, gold continues to be supported by central banks’ accumulation trends and persistent geopolitical fragmentation. Gold currently accounts for about 10% of global central bank reserves and is expected to increase further as diversification intensifies worldwide.

Source: Techcombank