Economic and Financial Highlights of the Week (20/10/2025-26/10/2025)

Over the past week, global market sentiment shifted to a “buoyant yet cautious” mood as U.S. and Asian stock indexes simultaneously reached new highs amid optimism over a potential U.S.–China trade deal, while crude oil prices rebounded and gold prices declined as capital flowed toward riskier assets. At the same time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that although the global growth outlook has slightly improved, the world economy continues to face significant policy and trade-related risks, leaving the recovery fragile. In Vietnam, domestic credit maintained strong momentum, reaching nearly USD 186 billion after ten months, while bilateral trade with the United States grew steadily—reflecting Vietnam’s ongoing efforts to strengthen its position within global supply chains.

Global Economy: According to the IMF, global growth in 2025 is projected at around 3%, below the 3.3% rate in 2024 and the 3.7% pre-pandemic level. The IMF warned that downside risks remain dominant amid an uncertain trade and investment environment, with global inflation expected to reach 4.2% in 2025. Global growth is likely to continue slowing and remain subdued through 2025–2026 as trade and investment conditions deteriorate. In 2025, President Trump implemented several rounds of tariff hikes on U.S. imports, disrupting supply chains and global investment flows. These disruptions in the global trade system are forcing countries to reshape trade structures and embrace protectionist policies, thus dampening long-term growth potential.

Vietnam Economy: To stimulate growth, the Vietnamese Government is expected to maintain an expansionary fiscal policy and accelerate public investment disbursement in the remaining months of the year. The Government aims to achieve 100% of the public investment disbursement plan for 2025, with a total planned allocation of VND 1.112 quadrillion. As of September 30, disbursement had reached 51% of the target—equivalent to VND 440.4 trillion—up 4.5 percentage points and VND 132.6 trillion from the same period last year. With this positive momentum, the Government expects to meet its 100% goal by year-end, reinforcing public investment as a key driver of economic growth in 2025.

Stock Market: The market continued to face strong profit-taking pressure this week as investors reacted to bond inspection results and persistent foreign selling driven by exchange-rate concerns. The VN-Index ended the week at 1,683.18 points, down 2.77% from the previous week. Most sectors experienced heavy selling pressure, except real estate, Vingroup-related stocks, and oil & gas, which helped cushion the index. Brokerage stocks suffered the most as average trading liquidity fell sharply compared to Q3, raising concerns about earnings in the coming quarters. Average weekly trading value was VND 37.8 trillion per session, down 13% from the previous week. Foreign investors continued net selling over VND 4.36 trillion, mainly in MSN, SSI, CTG, MBB, and VHM. Meanwhile, proprietary trading firms bought a net VND 2.5 trillion during market corrections. We expect the foreign outflow trend to reverse once the Fed continues its rate cuts and Vietnam’s market is officially included in FTSE indexes.

Bond Market: According to the VBMA report for October 13–17, there were 25 corporate bond issuances in October worth VND 28.7 trillion. Since the beginning of 2025, total corporate bond issuance has reached VND 452.4 trillion, including 26 public offerings (VND 49.3 trillion, 10.9%) and 364 private placements (VND 403.2 trillion, 89.1%). Recently, the Government Inspectorate announced findings that some enterprises misused bond proceeds during 2015–2023. However, this is a retrospective inspection and does not impact current operations, as tightened regulations since late 2022 have made the bond market more transparent and secure. Secondary market liquidity remains stable, with average daily trading on HNX at VND 386 billion (-3% WoW) and iConnect transactions averaging VND 133 billion per session (+50% WoW) with 484 investors participating.

Real Estate Market: The State Bank (Region 2) has instructed banks to halt loan disbursements for deposit payments under agreements with property brokers. At the same time, the HCMC Department of Construction requires developers to publicly disclose project information and prohibits delegating contract signing to third parties. These measures aim to prevent legal risks and restore market discipline. Before launching sales or leasing, developers must fully disclose details on location, legal status, scale, progress, and eligibility under the Law on Real Estate Business. In the first nine months of 2025, remittances to HCMC reached over USD 7.9 billion, up 6% year on year. A draft proposal by the HCMC Department of Construction would allow short-term tourist rentals in qualified mixed-use apartments, providing a legal framework for short-term leasing while protecting residents’ rights.

Gold Market: Domestic gold prices fell sharply following a global decline. SJC gold bars were sold at VND 149.2 million per tael, down nearly VND 4 million from the previous week. The buy–sell spread narrowed to VND 2 million per tael, indicating expectations of reduced price volatility ahead. Global gold prices dropped from recent highs to around USD 4,097 per ounce but remain supported by central bank gold reserve accumulation and global economic uncertainty. Currently, gold accounts for 10% of central bank reserves worldwide, a ratio likely to rise amid ongoing geopolitical fragmentation.

Source: Techcombank