Economic and Financial Highlights of the Past Week (22/12/2025 – 28/12/2025)

The global economy is witnessing a strong trend of central banks increasing gold reserves amid monetary and geopolitical uncertainties, while Vietnam marks a milestone in global integration with the establishment of an International Financial Center; meanwhile, stock, bond, and real estate markets show cautious and increasingly differentiated movements. Investment channels display clear adjustments: equities remain highly volatile, bond issuance stays robust despite rising interest rates, real estate faces long-term risks, and gold is gradually cooling as price gaps narrow and bank deposits become more attractive.

Global Economy: Central banks worldwide have continuously increased their gold reserves as global confidence in traditional reserve currencies such as the US dollar is being tested by inflation, sanctions, and geopolitical volatility. Prior to 2008, many Western central banks viewed gold as an inefficient reserve asset due to its lack of yield and therefore favored government bonds, particularly US Treasuries, leading to net gold sales in earlier periods. However, the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2020 Covid-19 shock triggered ultra-loose monetary policies globally, sharply reducing bond yields at certain times and diminishing their attractiveness. As a result, gold has re-emerged as a neutral and resilient store of value, especially for countries seeking greater independence from the Western financial system, such as China and Russia.

Vietnam Economy: Vietnam officially announced the establishment of the International Financial Center (IFC) on the morning of December 21, 2025, in Hanoi. This event marks a significant milestone, opening up new development space for Vietnam’s economy in the process of global integration. The legal framework governing the IFC includes Decree No. 323/2025/NĐ-CP issued by the Government on December 18, 2025. The current IFC operating model is divided into two locations: Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang. Accordingly, Ho Chi Minh City will focus on traditional banking services and capital market services, while Da Nang will concentrate on innovative financial services (fintech, digital payments, and high-tech platform-based financial services) and sustainable green finance (green bonds, green credit).

Stock Market: The market experienced a highly volatile week with mixed sentiment, ranging from early-week expectations of the VN-Index surpassing the 1,800-point threshold to strong sell-off pressure in the final two sessions. The index closed the week at 1,729.8 points, up 1.5% week-on-week, while liquidity remained low with an average weekly trading value of VND 28,340 billion. In our view, amid a lack of supporting information, subdued year-end trading activity, and the strong psychological resistance at 1,800 points, the VIC-related event acted more as a trigger for the correction rather than a core cause, as the railway project remains at a preliminary research stage. Foreign investors unexpectedly recorded strong net selling in the final session after five consecutive net buying sessions; nevertheless, total net buying for the week still reached VND 1,773 billion. The top five net-bought stocks were MWG (+VND 582 billion), STB (+VND 414 billion), MBB (+VND 286 billion), GEX (+VND 282 billion), and VJC (+VND 265 billion), while strong net selling was seen in VIC (-VND 544 billion), FPT (-VND 332 billion), and DGC (-VND 301 billion).

Bond Market: According to VBMA’s corporate bond market report, in December (as of the disclosure date of December 19), there were 39 corporate bond issuances with a total value of VND 33,375 billion. Strong capital demand kept bond issuance active despite an upward trend in interest rates in the final quarter of the year. Early bond buybacks in December amounted to VND 13,915 billion. The pace of corporate bond buybacks has slowed significantly and remained stable over the past three months, mainly due to a sharp decline in the value of bonds approaching maturity. Cumulatively from the beginning of the year, the value of bonds repurchased early reached VND 292,404 billion, up 52.1% year-on-year compared to 2024. The banking sector led the market, accounting for approximately 69.9% of total buyback value.

Real Estate Market: China’s real estate market in 2025 continues to stagnate. Newly started, completed, and transacted housing areas have declined by 50%, 70%, and 50%, respectively, compared to their 2019 peaks. China’s Real Estate Climate Index has remained on a continuous downward trend since early 2025. Vietnam’s most recent indicators are relatively similar to China’s current indicators rather than those seen during China’s overheating growth phase followed by a severe downturn (2018–2019). After a period of restructuring and adjustment following credit and bond tightening in 2022–2023, Vietnam’s market achieved a notable recovery in 2024–2025 thanks to legal policy reforms and infrastructure investment. However, in the coming years, if Vietnam fails to address the social housing challenge to cool housing prices and effectively control real estate credit, social pressure and the risk of market freeze driven by speculative price inflation may persist, similar to what China experienced eight years ago.

Alternative Investment Market: The gap between SJC gold prices and global gold prices remains high but has narrowed recently. Global gold prices, converted at bank USD rates, are equivalent to approximately VND 146 million per tael based on Vietcombank’s exchange rate. Domestic gold prices remain about VND 13.4 million per tael higher than global prices, a sharp reduction compared to the previous week. We believe the narrowing gap is largely due to the strong rise in global gold prices while domestic prices increased more slowly. Recent increases in deposit interest rates by commercial banks have made savings deposits more attractive, thereby easing the overheating of gold as an investment channel.

Source: Techcombank.