Economic and Financial Highlights of the Past Week (12/01/2026-18/01/2026)

U.S. economic prospects improved with higher growth and lower inflation forecasts, while Vietnam’s 2026 outlook remains positive with projected GDP growth of around 7.8%, despite ongoing challenges in exports, consumption, and FDI dynamics. Financial markets saw the VN-Index approach the 1,900-point threshold before correcting, Hanoi’s real estate supply remain strong amid slowing prices, and gold prices continue to establish new highs both domestically and globally.

Global Economy: U.S. Federal Reserve officials raised their forecast for U.S. GDP growth in 2026 to 2.3%, up 0.5 percentage points from the September projection, while lowering the PCE inflation forecast to 2.4% (from 2.6%) and maintaining the unemployment rate at 4.4% for next year.

Vietnam Economy: We forecast a positive outlook for Vietnam’s economy in 2026, with GDP growth projected at 7.8% under the base-case scenario, despite a less favorable global economic environment in 2026. Exports in 2026 are expected to grow at a double-digit rate; however, their positive impact on the overall economy may be more limited, as most of the growth and trade surplus are generated by FDI enterprises. Disbursed FDI capital is expected to maintain stable growth. We recommend closely monitoring the emerging monthly slowdown in registered FDI. Consumer activity, despite several supporting factors, remains subdued due to extreme flooding in Q4 2025. Nevertheless, consumption is likely to improve in 2026 as strong economic growth drives a significant increase in household incomes.

Equity Market: The market experienced an emotionally charged trading week, as large state-owned enterprises continued to drive the VN-Index to an all-time high of 1,900 points before facing correction pressure in the final sessions. The VN-Index closed at 1,879.12 points, up 0.6% week-on-week, while liquidity remained robust with average weekly trading value reaching VND 41.4 trillion per session. Market sentiment shifted from exuberance to caution amid profit-taking pressure and derivatives expiration effects toward the end of the week. Capital rotation was evident, moving away from the Vingroup group and spreading to state-owned enterprises and state-owned banks. We maintain a positive medium- to long-term outlook for the market; however, the index is currently encountering resistance around the 1,900 level, with support near 1,862.

Bond Market: According to VBMA’s corporate bond market report, total corporate bond issuance in 2025 reached VND 621.672 trillion (updated from the previous report), representing a 32% increase compared to 2024. Issuance value has continued to recover at a pace comparable to the past two years. In January 2026, as of the information disclosure date of January 9, there was one corporate bond issuance with a total value of VND 1 trillion. In 2025, the total value of bonds redeemed early reached VND 320.388 trillion, up 46.5% compared to 2024. In 2026, the value of bonds maturing is estimated at VND 206.294 trillion. In January 2026 (as of January 9), early bond redemptions totaled only VND 8 billion. Trading activity of listed corporate bonds on HNX during the week (January 9–15) averaged VND 550 billion per session, down 47% from the previous week but still 18% higher than the 2025 average. Meanwhile, trading value on the iConnect system (developed by TCBS to facilitate bond trading and counterparty matching) surged 144% week-on-week to an average of VND 120 billion per session (47% higher than the 2025 average), with 449 investors participating during the week.

Real Estate Market: Hanoi Supply: In 2025, newly launched residential supply (both high-rise and low-rise) reached 39,750 units, the second-highest level in the past six years (after 2019). Q4 alone contributed nearly 15,000 units. Primary Apartment Prices: Average primary prices reached VND 78 million per sqm (excluding VAT and maintenance fees). Notably, the high-end segment priced between VND 60–120 million per sqm accounted for 60% of total newly launched supply. Prices showed signs of slowing from Q3 and declined by 14% quarter-on-quarter in Q4. Secondary Apartment Prices: Secondary apartment prices reached approximately VND 62 million per sqm by year-end, showing signs of stabilization with only a 1% quarter-on-quarter increase compared to the peak in Q3. Total apartment sales exceeded 34,760 units (87% of total supply), indicating stable market absorption despite elevated prices.

Alternative Investment Market: SJC gold prices stood at VND 160.8 million per tael on the buying side and VND 162.8 million per tael on the selling side, rising sharply week-on-week in line with the strong rally in global gold prices. The bid–ask spread remained at VND 2 million per tael during the week. Global gold prices continued to reach new highs after a brief correction and are currently trading at USD 4,594 per ounce. Domestic gold prices broadly follow global trends; however, the price gap between domestic and global gold prices has widened again over the past two weeks.

Source: Techcombank.