Economic and Financial Highlights of the Week (06/10/2025-12/10/2025)

Over the past week, the global economy and financial markets showed positive signs as the IMF raised its forecast for global growth to 3.2%, reflecting a resilient recovery despite rising trade and geopolitical risks. In Vietnam, the stock market saw a slight decline as investors remained cautious ahead of FTSE’s review for a potential upgrade to emerging market status — an event expected to attract a significant inflow of foreign capital in the near future.

Global Economy: According to the IMF, global growth in 2025 is projected to reach around 3%, lower than the 3.3% recorded in 2024 and the pre-pandemic level of 3.7%. The IMF warned that downside risks remain dominant amid an uncertain trade and investment environment. Global inflation is expected to stand at 4.2% in 2025. Global economic growth is likely to continue slowing and remain at a low level throughout 2025 and 2026 due to instability in trade and investment conditions. In 2025, President Trump implemented several rounds of tariff increases on imports to the United States, disrupting global supply chains and investment activities. Current disruptions in the global trading system are forcing countries to reshape their trade structures and increasing protectionism, which in turn reduces long-term economic growth potential.

Vietnam’s Economy: Vietnam’s GDP in the third quarter is estimated to have grown by 8.23% compared to the same period last year, while GDP for the first nine months of 2025 increased by 7.85% year-on-year — slightly below the 9.44% growth rate recorded in the same period of 2022, the second-highest in the 2011–2025 period. By sector, agriculture, forestry, and fisheries grew by 3.83%, contributing 5.36% to the overall value-added growth; industry and construction expanded by 8.69%, contributing 43.05%; and services rose by 8.49%, contributing 51.59%. From the demand-side perspective, final consumption in Q3 2025 increased by 7.79% year-on-year, accounting for 59.76% of total GDP growth; gross capital formation rose by 8.97%, contributing 44.67%; exports of goods and services grew by 18.30%; while imports increased by 18.53%.

Stock Market: The VN-Index closed the week at 1,747.55 points, rising sharply by 6.2% from the previous week and surpassing its historical peak of 1,711. The market maintained strong upward momentum following FTSE Russell’s announcement of Vietnam’s market upgrade, with bullish sentiment spreading across investors—led mainly by the Vingroup group and large-cap stocks that are direct beneficiaries of the reclassification. Overall market performance improved as uncertainties surrounding the upgrade were resolved. The average liquidity during the week of October 10 reached VND 31.96 trillion per session, slightly higher than the previous week but still 20% below the cumulative average since August, reflecting investors’ cautious and selective disbursement behavior. This also signals strong political determination to promote economic growth. Foreign investors continued to be net sellers during the rebound sessions, with total net sales exceeding VND 5.046 trillion for the week, notably in VRE (–VND 895 billion), MBB (–VND 695 billion), MSN (–VND 645 billion), VPB (–VND 593 billion), and SSI (–VND 527 billion). Similarly, proprietary traders also recorded net sales of VND 1.545 trillion as of October 9. It is expected that the current net-selling trend will reverse once the FED continues to lower interest rates and Vietnam’s stock market is officially included in the FTSE-managed indices. According to estimates, both passive and active capital inflows into Vietnam’s stock market could reach approximately USD 3 – 7 billion following the effective implementation of the upgrade decision.

Bond Market: According to the VBMA’s corporate bond market report for the week of September 29 – October 3, corporate bond issuance activity in September continued to show stability, with 37 issuances totaling VND 39.178 trillion. Cumulatively, from the beginning of 2025 to date, total corporate bond issuance has reached VND 413.361 trillion. Of this amount, 24 public issuances accounted for VND 48.284 trillion, representing 11.7% of total issuance, while 330 private placements made up VND 365.078 trillion, or 88.3%. In addition to new issuances, early bond buybacks continued to be robust, with a total value of VND 26.172 trillion in September. Since the start of the year, the total value of early redemptions has reached VND 224.908 trillion, an increase of 52.4% compared to the same period in 2024. The banking sector led this activity, accounting for approximately 65.3% of the total repurchased value in the market.

Gold Market: Vietnam’s gold prices continued to rise over the past week after two weeks of correction, following the strong upward momentum of global gold prices. The selling price of SJC gold bars reached VND 142.2 million per tael, up nearly VND 4 million from the previous weekend. The buy–sell spread narrowed to about VND 2 million per tael, indicating that gold traders expect lower price volatility in the near term. Internationally, gold surged to a new record high of USD 4,015 per ounce, with Vietnam’s gold prices largely mirroring global trends. The global rally has been supported by central banks’ continued accumulation of gold reserves and ongoing global economic uncertainty. Currently, gold accounts for around 10% of total central bank reserves worldwide, a figure expected to rise further amid the ongoing trend of geopolitical fragmentation.

Source: Techcombank.