Weekly Economic and Financial Highlights (19/01/2026-25/01/2026)

Global and Vietnamese economies in 2025 showed mixed signals: China’s growth slowed amid weak consumption and investment, while Vietnam achieved record exports but remained highly dependent on FDI and the U.S. market. Financial markets remained in a consolidation phase with sector rotation, improving corporate bond fundamentals, rising real estate inventories, and gold continuing to hit new highs amid global economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

Global Economy: China’s GDP grew by only 4.5% YoY in Q4 2025, down significantly from 4.8% YoY in the previous quarter, marking the weakest growth since Q1 2023. Full-year GDP growth for 2025 still reached 5%, meeting Beijing’s official target of around 5%. Analysis of detailed data shows that domestic consumption and investment remained weak, while exports continued to serve as the key pillar supporting the economy. Retail sales increased by only 0.9% YoY in December, the lowest growth rate in the past three years. Fixed asset investment, including real estate, declined by 3.8% in 2025; real estate investment alone fell sharply by 17.2%.

Vietnam Economy: In 2025, Vietnam’s total export turnover reached a record USD 475.04 billion, up 17% compared to 2024. Of this, the domestic sector recorded USD 107.95 billion, down 6.1% and accounting for 22.7%, while the foreign-invested sector (including crude oil) reached USD 367.09 billion, up 26.1% and accounting for 77.3%. The export capacity of domestic enterprises continues to face significant challenges, causing the domestic value-added share in total exports to decline further, with 22.7% marking a record low in many years. This imbalance poses risks to Vietnam’s economy as the FDI sector is highly exposed to global geopolitical factors. Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. reached USD 153.2 billion in 2025, reaffirming the U.S. as Vietnam’s largest export market; while positive, this also implies risks due to heavy dependence on the U.S. market. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s imports from China reached approximately USD 186 billion in 2025, rising sharply from 2024, with China remaining Vietnam’s largest import market.

Stock Market: The market experienced a consolidation week within a narrow range following the previous strong rally. Early in the week, bullish sentiment spread widely thanks to the positive impact of Resolution 20 supporting the private sector, pushing the VN-Index to attempt a breakout above the psychological level of 1,900 points. However, increasing profit-taking pressure at high price levels caused the index to retreat, closing the week at 1,870.79 points (down 0.44% WoW). A bright spot was liquidity, which remained high with average weekly trading value reaching VND 35 trillion per session, indicating that domestic capital flows remained in the market. In terms of capital flows, sectoral divergence and rotation were clearly observed. Large-cap stocks, state-owned banks, and stocks that had risen sharply earlier faced strong profit-taking pressure, while capital shifted toward mid-cap stocks and sectors with relatively low base prices such as Real Estate, Securities, and Port Services. Foreign capital flows continued to be highly polarized, with net selling of VND 3,156 billion during the week; the top five most heavily net-sold stocks were VCB (-VND 1,052 billion), VHM (-VND 622 billion), VNM (-VND 438 billion), VIC (-VND 403 billion), and VRE (-VND 307 billion).

Bond Market: Reviewing full-year 2025, based on the cyclical nature of the corporate bond market, issuance activity is typically slow in the first three months of the year and begins to accelerate from April onward. Total corporate bond issuance in 2025 reached VND 622.79 trillion, up 32% compared to 2024. The Banking sector (+35% YoY) and the Residential Real Estate sector (+37% YoY) were the two leading sectors in terms of issuance growth. In 2025, the financial health of issuers improved significantly; according to VisRating, 50% of issuers achieved credit profiles rated “Average” or above (compared to approximately 38% in 2024). The bond delinquency rate also declined from 2% in 2024 to 1% in 2025.

Real Estate Market: Nationwide transactions (apartments, individual houses, and land-use rights) remain relatively stable at present, as increased supply has led many developers to offer incentives and improve legal transparency for buyers. However, inventory levels across all three real estate segments have continued to rise from early 2025 to date.

Alternative Investment Market: SJC gold prices surged to VND 171.5 million per tael on the buying side and VND 173.3 million per tael on the selling side, rising sharply compared to the previous week in line with the strong uptrend in global gold prices. The bid-ask spread narrowed slightly to around VND 1.8 million per tael during the week. Global gold prices continued to reach new highs after a brief correction and are currently at USD 4,988 per ounce. Domestic gold prices generally follow global trends, while the price gap between domestic and international gold has narrowed again over the past two weeks. Global gold prices remain supported by central banks’ increasing gold reserves and heightened global economic uncertainty. Currently, gold accounts for around 10% of global central bank reserves, and this figure may continue to rise amid ongoing global geopolitical fragmentation.

Source: Techcombank.