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Global Economy: After several months of cooling down, trade tensions between the United States and China reignited last week with a series of reciprocal pressure and retaliatory measures from both sides. China announced that it would expand its controls on the production and export of rare earth materials starting October 9, 2025. As China currently handles about 90% of the global rare earth supply chain, the new regulations have raised concerns over potential disruptions to global supply, especially as export license applications in Beijing have surged sharply. In addition, China declared that it would impose a special port fee on ships owned, built, or operated by the U.S. starting October 14, in response to recent U.S. actions. In retaliation, U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to impose additional tariffs on Chinese imports effective November 1, as well as introduce measures to restrict the use of certain advanced U.S.-made software in China. Furthermore, the U.S. unveiled plans to levy fees on vessels connected to China, aiming to curb Beijing’s influence in global shipping and bolster America’s shipbuilding industry.
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Economic and Financial Highlights of the Week (13/10/2025-19/10/2025)
During the week of October 13–19, 2025, global financial markets recorded positive movements as U.S. stocks continued to rise, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones up approximately 1.7% and 1.6%, respectively, driven by a rebound in technology shares. In contrast, China’s economy showed signs of stagnation, with Q3 GDP growth expected to reach only 4.8%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the property and trade sectors. Meanwhile, oil prices declined slightly amid oversupply concerns, causing Middle Eastern markets—particularly Saudi Arabia—to lose momentum after a previous rally.
Vietnam Economy: Exports in September recorded strong growth, rising 25% year-on-year, with major markets all posting double-digit increases. Although exports declined slightly by 1.7% month-on-month compared to August, our analysis suggests this is merely a seasonal factor — in fact, the smallest monthly drop in over seven years. Vietnam’s trade activity remains resilient amid ongoing global economic uncertainties. Notably, exports to the United States surged impressively by 38% YoY in September 2025 (compared to 22.4% YoY in September 2024), demonstrating that Vietnamese businesses continue to withstand the impact of new tariffs. This is further evidenced by reports that some firms have exported goods to the U.S. containing Chinese materials without being subject to the 40% tariff. For the full year 2025, we maintain our forecast that Vietnam’s export growth will reach approximately 15%.
Stock Market: The VN-Index closed the week at 1,731.19 points, down 0.92% from the previous week, mirroring the correction trend seen across most regional and global markets. The market showed strong divergence as capital inflows focused on stocks with positive Q3 2025 earnings results. Retail (MSN, MWG) and real estate stocks briefly led gains on improved earnings expectations; however, momentum quickly faded as Vingroup-related stocks faced profit-taking pressure after a sharp rally, coupled with negative news surrounding MSN’s private bond issuance. MSN later clarified that all related bonds had been fully settled on time, with most repaid early, having no impact on its current operations. Average weekly liquidity reached VND 43.5 trillion per session, up 36% week-on-week and 8% higher than the August average, indicating new but selective capital inflows targeting stocks with clear business stories.
Bond Market: According to the Vietnam Bond Market Association (VBMA), corporate bond issuance remained stable during the week of October 6–10, with six issuances totaling VND 3.64 trillion. Year-to-date, total corporate bond issuance reached VND 424.4 trillion, including 24 public offerings worth VND 48.3 trillion (11.4%) and 346 private placements worth VND 376.1 trillion (88.6%). Early bond redemptions also remained steady, totaling VND 1.56 trillion as of October 10. Since the beginning of 2025, early redemptions have reached VND 238.7 trillion, up 59.1% year-on-year, with the banking sector accounting for 66.4% of the total market value repurchased.
Real Estate Market: Surrounding areas of Ho Chi Minh City—such as former Binh Duong and Long An—saw abundant new supply, with average primary prices only around 30% for landed houses and 50% for apartments compared to inner HCMC. Although new supply in HCMC improved slightly in Q3, the market remains tight relative to demand, pushing prices higher in both primary and secondary markets. Key drivers continue to be legal reforms and suburban expansion. Investment capital from the North is flowing strongly to the South as Hanoi housing prices have reached less attractive profit margins. Southern properties remain appealing due to lower prices and strong infrastructure-driven growth potential. Sustainable development (ESG) and Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) models are gaining traction among investors and will likely shape developers’ strategies in the near future.
Gold Market: Vietnam’s gold prices surged sharply last week in line with the global uptrend. SJC gold selling price reached VND 153 million per tael, up nearly VND 9 million from the previous week. The buy–sell spread narrowed to VND 1.5 million per tael, suggesting gold traders expect reduced volatility ahead. Globally, gold prices hit a new record high at USD 4,300/oz before easing to USD 4,250/oz at week’s end. The uptrend remains supported by continued gold accumulation by central banks and heightened global economic uncertainty. Gold currently accounts for about 10% of central bank reserves worldwide, a ratio expected to rise as geopolitical fragmentation intensifies.
Source: Techcombank
