Economic and Financial Highlights of the Week (03/11/2025-09/11/2025)

Vietnam’s financial market faced correction pressure as the VN-Index dropped nearly 2.5%, liquidity weakened, and foreign investors continued strong net selling. At the same time, interbank interest rates rebounded to around 6% per year, signaling short-term liquidity tightening but also reflecting the State Bank’s determination to sustain credit growth momentum.

Global Economy: China’s exports in October fell by 1.1% year-on-year — the first decline since March 2024 — indicating that trade tensions with the United States are significantly affecting the country’s export sector. Over the first ten months of the year, exports to the U.S. dropped by nearly 18%, while China’s total exports increased by 5.3%. The trade surplus reached more than USD 964 billion, up 23% compared with the same period last year. The main reason is that Chinese exporters have been actively diversifying markets — to Southeast Asia, Europe, and Africa — or finding indirect ways to ship goods to the U.S., thus softening the overall impact. China’s GDP growth slowed to 4.8% in Q3 2025, down from 5.2% in Q2, marking the lowest quarterly growth rate in the past year.

Vietnam Economy: Since late October 2025, deposit rates have shown slight upward adjustments of 0.2–0.3 percentage points depending on terms and commercial banks. On the interbank market, the average overnight rate rose from 4.2% in September to 5.1% in October. Although system liquidity remains stable, interest rates in both the primary and interbank markets have tended to increase, reflecting shifts in capital supply and demand within the banking system. In the first nine months of 2025, credit growth reached over 13.4%, four percentage points higher than the same period last year (9.1%), indicating a strong recovery in capital demand across the economy. Meanwhile, deposit growth during the same period stood at 10.65%. The significant gap has prompted banks to raise deposit rates to secure sufficient lending capital for the months ahead.

Stock Market: Vietnam’s stock market continued to face strong correction pressure last week due to a lack of new supporting information, as most expectations had already been priced in. The VN-Index closed the week at 1,599.1 points, down 43.54 points (-2.65%), erasing the early-week recovery. Despite the sharp decline, liquidity remained low, with average weekly trading value reaching VND 25.3 trillion, down 8.2% from the previous week. This shows that investor sentiment was cautious, while bottom-fishing demand remained tentative due to the absence of clear positive signals. The market lacked leading stock groups, with only a few sectors — such as oil and gas — maintaining gains. Resolution 66.6/2025/NQ-CP was issued, granting PVN more autonomy in approving and adjusting exploration projects. Conversely, Vingroup and financial stocks came under strong selling pressure, weakening the market’s recovery momentum. Toward year-end, the rise in deposit rates has sparked concerns about a potential monetary tightening, but analysts note that such increases mainly serve rising credit demand. Therefore, interest rates are expected to stay relatively low to continue supporting business activities and economic growth.

Bond Market: According to the VBMA report for October 27 – 31, the corporate bond market remained active in October with 42 issuances totaling VND 57.2 trillion. Since the beginning of 2025, total corporate bond issuance has reached VND 481.9 trillion, including 28 public offerings worth VND 50.6 trillion (10.5%) and 380 private placements worth VND 431.4 trillion (89.5%). Early bond repurchases declined significantly in October as the value of maturing bonds decreased. The total value of early redemptions in October was VND 9.9 trillion, bringing the year-to-date total to VND 247.1 trillion, up 49.4% year-on-year. Banks continued to dominate, accounting for 66.7% of all early redemptions.

Real Estate Market: The Ministry of Construction has proposed raising fines for real estate exchanges that sign contracts with unlicensed brokers. Specifically, penalties would range from VND 200 million to 400 million for operating without a license or engaging unqualified brokers. Exchanges listing properties not yet eligible for trading could face fines of VND 400 million to 600 million (currently VND 100–200 million) and suspension of operations for 3–6 months. Developers may face fines of VND 500 million to 1 billion for delays of 12 months or more in filing for ownership certificates for projects with 200 units or more. Developers that mobilize capital without meeting legal conditions may face fines of up to VND 1 billion and be suspended for 3–6 months, and must refund collected payments upon customer request. Fines of VND 600–800 million would apply for failing to disclose information on mortgaged properties or projects, while inaccurate or incomplete disclosures before sales could lead to fines of VND 300–400 million. Once all transactions are conducted via official exchanges, buying, selling, transferring, and leasing activities will be monitored, forming a reliable real estate database that enables the State to regulate supply and demand, determine true prices, and ensure accurate taxation while curbing speculative “price inflation.”

Gold Market: Vietnam’s gold prices slightly declined, following the global downward trend. SJC gold bars were quoted at VND 145.4–148.4 million per tael (buy–sell), down marginally from the previous week, with the buy–sell spread widening to about VND 3 million per tael. Global gold prices have corrected sharply from their peak and are now hovering around USD 4,000 per ounce. Despite recent declines, gold remains supported by central banks’ increasing reserves and ongoing global economic uncertainty. Currently, gold accounts for about 10% of central bank reserves worldwide, and this figure is expected to rise amid deepening geopolitical fragmentation. The recent pullback in gold prices largely reflects profit-taking after a prolonged rally.

Source: Techcombank.