Weekly Economic and Financial Highlights (05/01/2026-11/01/2026)

The global backdrop suggests the Fed is inclined to keep interest rates unchanged in the near term as U.S. inflation cools and the dollar strengthens, while Vietnam enters a more cautious policy phase with a 2026 credit growth target of around 15% and tighter allocation mechanisms. Financial markets remain vibrant: equities hit new highs on strong liquidity, the corporate bond market continues to recover, real estate faces stricter credit controls, and gold rises sharply amid global economic uncertainty and increased central bank accumulation.

Global Economy: Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that policymakers are inclined to keep interest rates unchanged in the short term. The Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the strength of the U.S. dollar against six major currencies, rose to 99.13, marking its second consecutive weekly gain. According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on January 9, the U.S. economy added only 50,000 jobs in December 2025, below economists’ forecast of 60,000. However, the unemployment rate edged down slightly from 4.5% in November 2025 to 4.4% in December 2025. Headline U.S. inflation in November fell to 2.7% YoY, while core inflation declined to 2.6% YoY. The easing of inflation over the past two months has created additional room for monetary policy easing by the U.S. central bank in 2026.

Vietnam Economy: The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) reported that credit growth reached approximately 19.1% by the end of 2025, equivalent to VND 18.58 quadrillion. In 2026, credit growth is expected to be lower than in 2025, with the SBV setting a target of around 15%. The credit growth quota for each bank in 2026 will be determined by the bank’s rating score multiplied by a coefficient of 2.6%. Bank ratings are assessed under Circular 52/2018 and Circular 21/2025 based on six criteria: capital adequacy, asset quality, governance capacity, profitability, liquidity, and sensitivity to risk.

Equity Market: The market maintained strong momentum during the week, continuously setting new all-time highs. The key psychological resistance level of 1,800 was breached before the market faced corrective pressure in the final two sessions of the week. The VN-Index closed at 1,867.90, up 4.67% week-on-week. Liquidity quickly returned to the USD 1 billion threshold, with average weekly trading value reaching VND 33 trillion and improving steadily during up sessions, indicating renewed investor enthusiasm. Capital flows were highly selective, rotating mainly among Vingroup-related stocks, state-owned commercial banks, and other large-cap state-owned enterprises.

State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs): In addition to the risk of failing to meet public company requirements—particularly the condition that at least 10% of voting shares be held by at least 100 non-major shareholders—the market expects the state to restructure ownership, potentially triggering a new wave of state divestments. During the week, the National Assembly also issued a dedicated resolution on the state economy, emphasizing its leading role and setting targets of having 50 SOEs in the top 500 in Southeast Asia and three state-owned commercial banks among the top 100 largest banks in Asia by total assets, creating expectations for a growth boost for SOEs in the coming years.

Bond Market: According to the Vietnam Bond Market Association (VBMA), as of the end of December, there were 68 corporate bond issuances with a total value of VND 62,438 billion. Of these, 62 were private placements accounting for 94% of issuance value, while six were public offerings accounting for 6%. Strong funding demand kept issuance activity robust despite rising interest rates in the final quarter of the year. For the full year 2025, total corporate bond issuance reached VND 589,334 billion, up 24.9% compared to 2024, maintaining a recovery pace comparable to the past two years. Bond buybacks before maturity in December amounted to VND 35,820 billion, down 15% year-on-year. In 2026, corporate bond maturities are estimated at VND 206,294 billion. Trading of listed corporate bonds on HNX during the week (January 2–8) averaged VND 1,046 billion per session, up 3% week-on-week and 121% higher than the 2025 average. Meanwhile, trading value on the iConnect system declined to an average of VND 49 billion per session (-25% WoW), with 302 investors participating during the week.

Real Estate Market: In 2026, the SBV set a credit growth target of around 15%, lower than the estimated 18–19% credit growth in 2025, while leaving open the possibility of adjustments depending on economic conditions. Although many sectors may be affected, tightening credit limits—particularly for real estate business and consumer lending—is expected to deliver strategic benefits for both macroeconomic stability and individual borrowers.

Alternative Investment Market: SJC gold bullion was quoted at VND 157.8–159.8 million per tael (buy–sell), rising sharply week-on-week in line with the strong rebound in global gold prices. The bid–ask spread remained at VND 2 million per tael. Global gold prices rebounded after a brief correction and are currently around USD 4,510 per ounce. Domestic gold prices generally track global trends, while the price gap between Vietnamese and global gold has narrowed significantly over the past three weeks. Global gold prices continue to be supported by increased gold reserves held by central banks and persistent global economic uncertainty. Gold currently accounts for about 10% of global central bank reserves, a figure that may rise further amid ongoing geopolitical fragmentation worldwide.

Source: Techcombank.