Report on macroeconomic and financial markets, December 2025

The global economy in 2026 is expected to grow steadily but with clear divergence among regions, while Vietnam continues to stand out as a bright spot with strong growth, stable macroeconomic conditions, and a prudent yet flexible policy stance. Domestic financial markets have entered a period of adjustment and accumulation due to interest rate pressures; however, the medium- to long-term outlook remains positive, supported by improving economic fundamentals and expectations of a market upgrade. The real estate sector is driven by major infrastructure and urban development projects, while gold retains its defensive appeal, offering suitable investment opportunities during reasonable correction phases.

Global Economy: Global economic growth in 2026 is projected to stabilize around 3%, but with high divergence. The global economy has adapted better to the shock from the uncertain US tariff policy than initially feared. The US economy is expected to continue slowing down. The Chinese economy continues to face structural issues such as a declining population, overproduction, and a sluggish real estate market. The EU economy is likely to be more favorable in 2026 but will remain at a low level.

Vietnam’s Economy: GDP growth for 2025 and 2026 is projected to be positive, reaching 7.7% and 7.8%. Fundamental macroeconomic balances are stable, with average annual inflation for 2025 and 2026 restrained at 3.3% and 3.8%; exchange rate pressure will cool down at the end of 2026 when the U.S. Central Bank cuts interest rates. For the whole year of 2026, the USD/VND exchange rate is projected to increase at a level of 2.5%. Monetary policy tends to be more cautious as the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) recently increased the OMO interest rate to 4.5%. Credit growth in 2026 is projected to continue at a high level of about 18% to promote growth. Lending and deposit interest rate levels are projected to increase by about 0.4% in 2026. Fiscal policy maintains a loose [stance]. The projected budget deficit for 2026 is 4.2% of GDP. Development investment expenditure is projected at 1.12 quadrillion VND. Demand stimulus policies are being deployed, [including] reducing VAT by 2% until the end of 2026, [and] extending and deferring the schedule for paying fees and land rents.

Stock Market: After reaching a historic peak of 1,780 points in October 2025, the VN-Index has undergone a downward correction due to profit-taking pressure and concerns over rising interest rates in recent months. In early December 2025, the market temporarily dropped below the 1,600 level before recovering to around 1,640 points. Optimism has given way to caution, and many large-cap stock groups have experienced significant declines from their previous highs. The VN-Index is currently testing the resilience of the 1,600-point support level and fluctuating around this range while awaiting a new trend to emerge. Market liquidity has remained low throughout November and the early weeks of December, as many investors chose to stay on the sidelines and limit trading amid rising risks. The Vietnamese stock market has been placed under review for an upgrade to Secondary Emerging Market status by FTSE Russell, which is expected to attract substantial capital inflows from both passive and active funds following the official upgrade scheduled for September 2026. However, as of now, foreign investors have not returned to net buying on Vietnam’s stock market, although net selling has eased in December. Overall, the stock market remains a promising investment channel in the medium term after Vietnam’s anticipated upgrade by FTSE Russell. Nevertheless, rising interest rates in 2026 are expected to exert downward pressure on equity valuations. Investors are advised to wait for corrections of more than 15% from market peaks to obtain more favorable long-term entry prices.

Bond Market: According to VBMA’s corporate bond market report, as of November 28, there were 24 private corporate bond issuances during November, totaling VND 19,608 billion — a 70.69% decrease from the previous month. Notably, capital demand from the real estate sector has surged, pushing issuance interest rates in this group to above 10% per annum in many cases. Khai Hoan Land Group, for instance, issued a 60-month bond with an interest rate of up to 13.5% per annum. Early bond repurchase activities in November reached only VND 11,144 billion, marking a sharp decline in the past two months, mainly because the value of bonds approaching maturity has dropped significantly. Since the beginning of 2025, the total value of bonds repurchased before maturity has reached VND 271,756 billion, up 55% year-on-year. The banking sector leads the market, accounting for approximately 68.5% of total repurchase value. The average daily trading value of listed corporate bonds on HNX between December 5–11 was VND 785 billion per session, down 31% from the previous week but still 88% higher than the 2025 year-to-date average. Meanwhile, trading value on the iConnect platform (developed by TCBS to facilitate bond trading and investor matching) fell 28% week-on-week to VND 50 billion per session, with 431 investors participating during the week.

Real Estate Market: On December 14, the Hanoi People’s Council approved the investment policy for the Red River Landscape Boulevard project, covering more than 11,000 hectares with a preliminary total capital of VND 855 trillion. The project aims to redevelop both riverbanks and create a “Red River Miracle.” Hanoi’s 2021–2030 Master Plan, with a vision to 2050, identifies the Red River as a central green axis, a cultural heritage and tourism corridor, and a key urban connection between the Capital Region and the Red River Delta. The project extends from Hong Ha Bridge to Me So Bridge, spanning 19 wards and communes of Hanoi. Vingroup plans to build a world-class Olympic-standard sports stadium in Hanoi, named Trong Dong Stadium, with an extraordinary capacity of 135,000 seats — projected to be the largest in Vietnam and among the top globally. The stadium will be a centerpiece of the Vinhomes Olympic Ngoc Hoi urban area. Also on December 14, the Hanoi People’s Council approved the investment policy for the Olympic Sports City project, covering over 9,000 hectares with an estimated total investment exceeding VND 925 trillion. The project aims to meet the conditions for hosting ASIAD and the Olympic Games and will be developed across 11 communes, including Dai Thanh, Ngoc Hoi, Nam Phu, Thuong Tin, Hong Van, Chuong Duong, Thuong Phuc, and Binh Minh.

Gold Market: We assess that global gold prices are likely to continue rising, even after recent profit-taking, as global demand remains strong—particularly from central banks. However, domestic gold prices in Vietnam remain significantly higher than global prices, with a difference of approximately VND 19–20 million per tael. In 2025–2026, investors should consider entering the gold market when prices undergo a correction of more than 10% or when the domestic–international price gap narrows substantially, potentially driven by government regulatory interventions.

Source: Techcombank