Highlights of the Week in Economics and Finance (24/11/2025-30/11/2025)

Global markets remained volatile as central banks delivered mixed signals on interest-rate paths, while manufacturing and services data in the U.S. and Europe showed modest signs of recovery. International capital flows shifted toward safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical risks, whereas the Asian region recorded a recovery trend driven by improving year-end export orders.

Global Economy: China reported a 1.1% year-on-year decline in export turnover for October. This is the first drop since March 2024, indicating that the trade conflict with the U.S. is significantly impacting China’s export sector. Cumulatively over the first ten months, China’s exports to the U.S. fell nearly 18%. Meanwhile, China’s total export turnover increased by 5.3% in the first ten months of the year. The trade surplus exceeded USD 964 billion, up 23% year-on-year. The main reasons are that Chinese exporters actively sought alternative markets such as Southeast Asia, Europe, and Africa, or found ways to sell indirectly to the U.S., thereby cushioning the impact on the export sector, though not eliminating it. China’s economic growth slowed in Q3, with GDP rising 4.8% year-on-year, down from 5.2% in Q2. This is also the lowest quarterly growth rate in the past year.

Vietnam Economy: Since late October 2025, the market has begun to show signs of a slight increase in deposit rates, rising by 0.2–0.3% depending on tenors and on each commercial bank. On the interbank market, the average overnight lending rate increased from 4.2% per year in September to 5.1% per year in October. Although system liquidity remains stable, interest rates in both Market 1 and Market 2 show an upward trend, reflecting shifts in capital supply and demand among commercial banks. In the first nine months of 2025, credit growth reached more than 13.4%, up 4 percentage points compared to the same period last year (9.1%), showing that capital demand in the economy is recovering strongly. Meanwhile, deposit growth in the same period reached only 10.65%. This relatively large gap is prompting commercial banks to boost deposit mobilization to ensure adequate lending resources in the future.

Stock Market: Vietnam’s stock market continued to face strong corrective pressure last week due to a lack of new supporting information, while most expectations had already been priced in. The VN-Index closed the week at 1,599.1 points, down 43.54 points (2.65%), erasing the recovery momentum seen in the early sessions. Despite the sharp decline, liquidity remained low, with average weekly trading value reaching VND 25,305 billion, down 8.2% from the previous week. This signals cautious investor sentiment, while bottom-fishing demand remains tentative given the absence of clear positive signals. The market also lacked leading sectors, with only a few groups with specific stories—such as Oil & Gas—maintaining gains. Resolution 66.6/2025/NQ-CP was issued, granting PVN greater autonomy in approving and adjusting exploration and production projects. Conversely, Vingroup and Financials faced strong selling pressure, weakening the market’s overall recovery momentum. We observe that rising year-end deposit rates have led some investors to worry about a potential reversal of monetary policy; however, we believe the rate increases are mainly to meet rising credit demand at year-end. Therefore, we maintain our view that although interest rates may edge up slightly, they will remain low to support business activity and promote economic growth in the coming period.

Bond Market: According to the VBMA corporate bond market report for the week of 27/10–31/10, corporate bond issuance remained active in October, with 42 issuances totaling VND 57,192 billion. Year-to-date, total corporate bond issuance reached VND 481,944 billion. Of this, 28 public issuances amounted to VND 50,583 billion (10.5% of the total), while 380 private placements amounted to VND 431,361 billion (89.5%). Early bond buybacks showed a significant decline in October, mainly because the value of corporate bonds nearing maturity had decreased substantially. Cumulatively in October, early buybacks totaled only VND 9,948 billion. From the beginning of the year, total early buybacks reached VND 247,053 billion, up 49.4% year-on-year. Banks remain the leading sector, accounting for 66.7% of total early buyback value.

Real Estate Market: The Ministry of Construction has proposed increasing penalties for real-estate trading floors that sign contracts with unqualified brokers. Specifically, fines of VND 200–400 million may apply to entities operating without a license or signing contracts with brokers not meeting legal requirements. Trading floors that list properties not yet eligible for business may face fines of VND 400–600 million (currently VND 100–200 million) and suspension of operations for 3–6 months. The Ministry also proposed fines of VND 500 million to VND 1 billion for developers who are over 12 months late in submitting documents for pink-book issuance for projects with more than 200 units. Developers raising capital without meeting legal business conditions may be fined VND 800 million to VND 1 billion. Violating developers will face suspension of business activities for 3–6 months and must refund collected payments to buyers upon request. Failure to disclose information on mortgaged housing, construction works, or real-estate projects may result in fines of VND 600–800 million. Developers providing incomplete or inaccurate information before selling properties may also be fined VND 300–400 million. When all transactions are required to go through trading floors, all buying, selling, transferring, and leasing activities will be monitored, creating a real-time database for the market. This data will form the basis for the State to regulate supply and demand, determine real prices, collect taxes accurately, and prevent price manipulation.

Gold Market: Vietnam’s gold prices saw a slight downward adjustment following the global gold price trend. SJC gold bars were quoted at VND 145.4–148.4 million per tael (buy–sell), slightly lower than the previous week. The buy–sell spread stood at VND 3 million per tael, a level that has widened in recent weeks. Global gold prices have declined sharply from recent peaks and are currently fluctuating around USD 4,000 per ounce. Domestic gold prices largely follow global trends. Global gold remains supported by increasing gold reserves among central banks and ongoing global economic uncertainties. Gold currently accounts for 10% of global central-bank reserves, and this proportion may rise in the future amid global geopolitical fragmentation. The global gold price decline over the past two weeks is mainly due to investors taking profits after an extended period of sharp gains.

Source: Techcombank.