Weekly Economic and Financial Highlights (10/11/2025-16/11/2025)

During the past week, global economic and financial developments saw several key highlights: the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by another 0.25%, bringing the target range down to 3.75%–4.00% to support growth, while China reported a 1.1% year-on-year decline in October exports, reflecting the clearer impact of trade tensions with the U.S. These dynamics indicate that the global economy continues to adjust amid geopolitical pressures and weakening demand.

Global Economy: The United States and Switzerland have announced the conclusion of a trade agreement under which import tariffs will be reduced from 39% to 15%. Following the announcement, Switzerland’s Minister of Economy revealed that, pursuant to the agreement, Switzerland will invest USD 200 billion into the United States by 2028. In addition to the newly concluded trade agreement, the Swiss Minister of Economy reiterated that the country will invest USD 200 billion into the U.S. by 2028, with the largest allocations directed toward the pharmaceutical and medical technology sectors. Earlier this year, Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche committed to investing USD 50 billion in the United States. The agreement effectively aligns the U.S. import tariff rate applied to Switzerland with those applied to the European Union, Japan, and South Korea at 15%.

Vietnam Economy: The National Assembly has approved the Resolution on the 2026 socio-economic development plan, setting highly ambitious targets for GDP growth, per-capita income, and economic restructuring. According to the Resolution, Vietnam aims for GDP growth of at least 10% in 2026; per-capita GDP of USD 5,400–5,500; the manufacturing and processing sector accounting for approximately 24.96% of GDP; average CPI growth of around 4.5%; average annual labor productivity growth of about 8.5%; agricultural labor accounting for around 25.3% of total labor; and the proportion of workers with degrees or certificates reaching about 29.5%.

Stock Market: The VN-Index closed the week at 1,635.46 points, rising 36.36 points (2.25%) from the previous week. Liquidity remained low, with average weekly trading value reaching VND 21,182 billion, down 16.3% from the previous week. Several positive developments were recorded, including the National Assembly’s approval of the 2026 development plan targeting GDP growth of at least 10% and per-capita income of USD 5,400–5,500, as well as news that Vanguard plans to open a trading account in Vietnam following the market’s official upgrade. Although these developments have not yet generated strong impacts, they have helped support investor sentiment. We expect a market bottom to form in November as investors begin to focus on year-end earnings season. The recent sharp decline has also made valuations more attractive. Foreign investors continued their net-selling trend with a total net-sell value exceeding VND 2,281 billion, primarily in STB (-858 billion), VCI (-624 billion), HDB (-572 billion), MBB (-280 billion), and VRE (-244 billion). Meanwhile, proprietary trading desks took advantage of the correction to increase disbursements, recording a net-buy of VND 1,066 billion during the week.

Bond Market: From the beginning of 2025 to date, total corporate bond issuance reached VND 491,398 billion. This includes 28 public issuances with a total value of VND 50,583 billion (10.5% of total issuance) and 392 private placements amounting to VND 440,815 billion (89.7%). Early redemption activity remained limited in November, with only VND 100 billion of bonds repurchased before maturity, largely because the volume of bonds approaching maturity has decreased significantly. Cumulatively since the beginning of the year, enterprises have bought back VND 254,706 billion in bonds before maturity, up 53.6% year-on-year, with the banking sector accounting for approximately 67.7% of total early redemptions.

Real Estate Market: The real estate market continued to benefit from stable interest rates and the government’s orientation to accelerate credit and public investment in the final months of the year. High credit growth into real estate over the first nine months reflects capital demand and the sector’s recovery. However, the rapid expansion of credit flowing into real estate may pose potential risks.

Alternative Investments: Gold prices in Vietnam surged strongly during the week, supported by increases in global gold prices. SJC gold bars were quoted at VND 151.2–153.2 million per tael (buy–sell), rising nearly VND 5 million per tael from the previous week. The buy–sell spread narrowed to around VND 2 million per tael. However, the gap between domestic SJC prices and global prices remains large. Global gold converted at the Vietcombank exchange rate equates to approximately VND 132.3 million per tael, meaning domestic gold remains higher by roughly VND 20.9 million per tael—significantly wider than last week and still at a very elevated level. This substantial gap poses notable risks, especially after the Government issued Decree No. 232/2025/NĐ-CP removing the monopoly on SJC gold bars, which may trigger a sharp correction once the domestic–international price disparity closes.

Source: Techcombank.