Weekly Economic & Financial Highlights (26/01/2026-30/01/2026)

The global economy faces heightened uncertainty as the Federal Reserve prepares for a leadership transition amid persistent inflation, elevated interest rates, and rising political pressure, while Vietnam targets breakthrough growth in 2026 driven by infrastructure investment and export expansion. Domestically, financial markets remain cautious, with equities correcting, bonds staying stable, and real estate and alternative investments influenced by interest rate conditions and global gold price volatility.

Global Economy: U.S. President Donald Trump has officially nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, bringing an end to a prolonged and controversial search surrounding the leadership of the U.S. central bank. If approved by the Senate, he will assume office in May when Mr. Powell’s term expires. Mr. Kevin Warsh will take over Mr. Powell’s position at a time when the U.S. Federal Reserve is facing major challenges stemming from the dilemma in monetary policy management. Although inflation has eased, it remains well above the 2% target, while interest rates remain elevated and the labor market is weakening. In addition, the Fed’s independence is increasingly being questioned amid growing political pressure from President Donald Trump.

Vietnam Economy: Recently, the Government issued Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP dated January 8, 2026, outlining key tasks and solutions to implement the 2026 socio-economic development plan and the state budget estimate. The main socio-economic targets set forth in the Resolution include: GDP growth in 2026: striving for a breakthrough growth rate of 10% or higher; GDP per capita: targeting approximately USD 5,400–5,500; Exports: aiming to reach USD 550 billion with growth of 15–16% in 2026; Transport infrastructure: accelerating investment and completion of key transport infrastructure projects such as the eastern North–South Expressway and Long Thanh International Airport.

Equity Market: During the final trading week of January 2026, the Vietnamese stock market experienced its longest correction since late 2018. The VN-Index fell by nearly 100 points over seven consecutive sessions before bottom-fishing demand emerged around the 1,800-point level, allowing the index to recover slightly and close the week at 1,829.04 points, down 2.23% week-on-week. Average liquidity remained at approximately VND 29 trillion, indicating that cautious sentiment continues to dominate investors. The downward pressure was mainly driven by profit-taking in the Vingroup group of stocks, which had previously led the market’s rally. Capital flows during the week showed continuous rotation across sectors, reflecting a cautious market stance, with signs of shifting toward defensive sectors or those with solid fundamentals such as Retail, Technology, and Industrial Real Estate. Under a positive scenario, we believe the market may regain balance around the 1,800-point level. The VN-Index is likely to enter a sideways consolidation phase within the 1,800–1,850 range before requiring new catalysts to drive momentum toward its historical peak.

Bond Market: According to the Vietnam Bond Market Association (VBMA), in January 2026, as of the information disclosure date of January 23, there were four corporate bond issuances with a total value of VND 3,711 billion. Due to the cyclical nature of the corporate bond market, issuance activity in the first three months of the year is typically slow and tends to accelerate from April onward. For the full year 2025, total corporate bond issuance reached VND 627,290 billion, up 32% compared to 2024. The Banking sector (+35% YoY) and the Residential Real Estate sector (+37% YoY) were the two leading contributors to corporate bond issuance growth over the past year. For the remainder of 2026, total bond maturities are expected to reach VND 204,042 billion, of which 61% will come from the Real Estate sector and 11.2% from the Banking sector. Secondary corporate bond market trading remained stable. Trading value of privately placed corporate bonds (January 16–23, latest data) averaged VND 5,090 billion per day, down 4.2% week-on-week and 7% lower than the 2025 average. Trading value of listed bonds on the HNX during the week (January 23–29) averaged VND 614 billion per session, down 41% week-on-week but still 32% higher than the 2025 per-session average. Meanwhile, trading value on the iConnect system (a trading platform developed by TCBS to support investors in posting buy/sell orders and finding counterparties) increased slightly by 3% week-on-week to an average of VND 60 billion per session, with 437 investors participating during the week.

Real Estate Market: By the end of 2025, Vietnam’s economy recorded an impressive growth rate of 8.02%, laying the foundation for ambitious growth targets in the coming period. However, amid global political uncertainties, 2026 is viewed as a year favoring long-term and selective investment strategies. Several banks have begun raising mortgage lending rates, with increases ranging from 0.5% to 2% per annum compared to the previous month.

Alternative Investment Market: SJC gold bar prices fell sharply over the past week to VND 169 million per tael on the buying side and VND 172 million per tael on the selling side, a significant decline compared to the previous week in line with the unexpected sharp drop in global gold prices. The bid–ask spread widened to around VND 3 million per tael, increasing markedly during the week. After reaching a new record high, global gold prices experienced a sharp decline toward the end of the week and are currently trading at around USD 4,893 per ounce. Domestic gold prices generally continue to follow global trends; however, the gap between domestic and international gold prices remains elevated. Global gold prices continue to be supported by rising gold reserve accumulation by central banks and ongoing global economic uncertainty. Currently, gold accounts for around 10% of global central bank reserves, and this proportion may increase further as geopolitical fragmentation intensifies worldwide.

Source: Techcombank.